Capital Market Outlook

IN THIS ISSUE

• Macro Strategy — Stay Calm: How U.S. Equities Have Navigated “Once-in-a-Century” Macro Events: Each one of these “once-in-a-century” events has triggered doomsday commentary and epic market swoons. Near-term, we expect more chop and churn as the markets dissect and discount the upending of the global trading regime of the past eighty years.
  
  
• Market View — Liftoff in Europe? Six Reasons to be Cautious: We felt investors should approach Europe with caution given structural barriers, regional fragmentation, massive trade dependencies, weak productivity, index revenue exposure, and market concentration risks.
  
  
• Thought of the Week — Mixed Signals: The Divergence between “Soft” and “Hard” Data: Abounding uncertainty is weighing on sentiment across consumers, investors and businesses, creating a divergence between “soft data,” which captures perceptions and expectations, and “hard data,” which reflects actual levels of economic activity.